The Vigilant Operator

Category: Intel

Open-source threat assessments, information environment trends, and situational awareness briefs.

  • S2 Underground: The Wire 10/30/25

    //The Wire//2300Z October 30, 2025//
    //ROUTINE//
    //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN LEBANON AS TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH. UNREST UNDERWAY IN TANZANIA. AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE IN CARIBBEAN. WHITE HOUSE PLANS TO INCREASE NUCLEAR TESTING FOLLOWING RUSSIA’S INTENSIFICATION OF SIMILAR EFFORTS.//

     —–BEGIN TEARLINE—–

    -International Events-

    Middle East: Overnight Israeli targeting in Lebanon continued with new strikes in the southern regions of the country. This comes after a few days of airstrikes and rising tensions in Lebanon. 

    Analyst Comment: Details are sketchy on all sides, however a series of events have transpired over the past few days that have deteriorated relations. On Sunday, French troops stationed in Lebanon as part of the UN observation mission shot down an Israeli drone that was harassing their position. In response to that, a different drone approached the French position and dropped a grenade near them. An Israeli tank also fired a round that landed near the French observation post, continuing a long-standing tradition in the region (The IDF will frequently shoot near an international power that they don’t like, they have hit a few observation posts with tank rounds before). In addition to this, IDF bombings adjacent to UN locations in Lebanon have continued to send the message, but mostly have just increased tensions in Lebanon once again and served as a reminder that the relationship between Israel and France is not particularly great.

    Tanzania: A state of civil unrest is underway nationwide following the deterioration of protests over the past few days, most of which have been prompted by recent election woes. The incumbent President excluded his main political rivals from the ballot, which prompted protests and demonstrations. These efforts have now become more widespread, and around a dozen fatalities have been reported so far during the riots.

    Caribbean: Yesterday evening the Pentagon announced another strike in the region, which resulted in the sinking of one more narco-vessel in the Pacific. 4x KIA were reported as a result of the strike.

    -HomeFront-

    Washington D.C. – Much rhetoric has abounded following various developments in the field of nuclear weapons. Earlier this week, Russia publicly announced the successful test of their latest nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable torpedo system, which has been a class of weapons in development since the 1980’s. This latest version, dubbed the “Poseidon” in the open source world, is the latest version to be publicly and successfully tested. This in turn produced much fanfare surrounding these tests, and President Trump has stated that the US intends to increase nuclear testing over the next few months; because other nations have increased their efforts, so will the United States.

    —–END TEARLINE—–

    Analyst Comments: Regarding this recent rhetoric, there appears to be a “lost in translation” factor to what has been said by world leaders so far. Russia, for instance, has not stated that they intend to carry out testing of actual atomic weapons themselves. The last time Russia conducted a test of the detonation of a nuclear warhead was in 1990. China similarly conducted an underground nuclear test a little more recently, back in 1996. Russia in particular also has a slightly different “nuclear triad” than the United States. The US has bombers, submarine launched missiles, and static missile silos, all of which form the main methods for the deployment of nuclear weapons (thus the three legs of the “triad”).

    Russia has a different, more diverse view of nuclear deterrence. They have bombers (same as us), submarine launched missiles (again, same as us), some static silos, a lot of mobile launchers to include some train-based options, and now entering more widespread operational use, nuclear torpedos to supplement their very substantial submarine force.

  • S2 Underground: The Wire – 10/24/25

    //The Wire//2300Z October 24, 2025//
    //PRIORITY//
    //BLUF: U.K. MISTAKENLY RELEASES MIGRANT THAT SPARKED THE EPPING RIOTS, MANHUNT UNDERWAY FOR THE FUGITIVE. BRITISH DIGITAL ID SCHEME TO TARGET CITIZENS FOR NONCOMPLIANCE. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED AT COAST GUARD BASE IN CALIFORNIA. USA TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA TERMINATED AS CANADA LAUNCHES PROPAGANDA AD CAMPAIGN.//

    —–BEGIN TEARLINE—–

    -International Events-

    United Kingdom: In an interview regarding the Digital ID scheme, PM Starmer revealed that the penalty for not getting and using a Digital ID will be a fee of £85 for every instance of financial transaction that would ordinarily require an ID under this new plan.

    This afternoon, a separate situation developed as a major police operation was declared in Essex after the Epping Hotel attacker was allegedly mistakenly released from prison. Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was released by police this morning, rather than being deported. Currently a manhunt is underway, and local citizens are urged to be on the lookout for the violent criminal. Local police have not provided a description of Kebatu other than his mugshot, however a local citizen posted a video on social media after they spotted a man matching his description carrying his belongings in a clear trash bag. This footage was taken before the wanted notice went out, and the grey sweat/tracksuit he was wearing matches the description that court reporters visually saw him wearing earlier that day in court.

    Geolocation of this video evidence places Kebatu’s last known location outside a cafe at Number 84 on the High Street in Chelmsford. The video cuts off before Kebatu’s destination could be confirmed, but his last known azimuth places him traveling North up High Street, toward the bus station.

    Analyst Comment: Kebatu is an Ethiopian national who assaulted a child and a woman in Epping back in July, prompting the now-infamous Epping Riots. He had only been detained for roughly a month, and was supposed to be deported as a way of the British government showing that they do indeed deport violent criminals. However this shining example of good faith has been dashed, and the already dismal public sentiment on the issue is about to get a lot worse.

    To put it lightly, it is in Mr. Kebatu’s very best interest for the *police* to find him as soon as possible. On the one hand, it is true that the British government let a violent criminal out of jail. But on the other hand that also means that he is no longer under police protection, he has no documentation, doesn’t speak English, and no one knows where he is. Anyway, a few protests and demonstrations are well underway in Epping, and time is of the essence to find him, before the trail goes cold.

    Canada: The United States has suspended trade negotiations with Canada due to the discovery of a propaganda campaign targeting Americans. The government of Ontario ran a $75 million ad campaign featuring a speech by Ronald Reagan, in which he spoke negatively about the idea of tariffs. This speech, however, was a fabrication using clips and words selectively cut from Reagan’s 1987 address in order to make it look like Reagan was not in favor of tariffs…when the actual uncut speech was actually in favor of tariffs.

    Analyst Comment: There’s a saying in the world of psyops…a deception campaign can never fail. Even if discovered, the deception effort will cause doubt as to what’s real, so there will always be some level of effectiveness. In this case, Canadian officials thought they were being cute by playing fast and loose, but this was not simply a harmless meme or something obviously fake. The content that was produced was fully intended to take the place of true information, and when carried out by a nationstate to manipulate the internal sentiment of a foreign nation, this a very serious charge. The sheer scale of this propaganda cam

  • S2 Underground: The Wire – October 22, 2025

    //The Wire//2300Z October 22, 2025//
    //ROUTINE//
    //BLUF: VIOLENT CAREER CRIMINAL GRANTED BOND IN CHARLOTTE AFTER SHOOTING TODDLER. MEMBERS OF SINGH FAMILY CARGO THEFT RING ARRESTED IN CALIFORNIA. PENTAGON REPORTS STRIKE IN PACIFIC OCEAN AS NARCO WAR SPREADS. NEW HAMPSHIRE SUPREME COURT JUSTICE RETURNS TO BENCH AFTER ACCEPTING PLEA DEAL IN CRIMINAL CASE.//

     —–BEGIN TEARLINE—–

    -International Events-

    Ireland: Unrest in Dublin continued throughout the night, with thousands of protesters and rioters taking up position outside the Citywest Hotel. Today, local observers noted significant fortification efforts being undertaken at the sprawling complex that encompasses the resort hotel, indicating much more protest activity is expected.

    Analyst Comment: The situation was made worse by the fact that most media organizations have only focused on the riot itself, and not the kidnap and rape of a child that started the whole affair. Compounding issues further was the observation of another load of migrants being bussed in to the area under heavy police protection.

    South America: The War Department has announced another kinetic strike on a narco vessel, bringing the total count to 8x vessels sunk so far this campaign. This vessel was not sunk in the Caribbean, but rather in the Pacific Ocean in a vicinity that has not yet been disclosed. 2x individuals onboard the vessel were killed during the strike.

    Analyst Comment: Regarding the previous strike on the Narco Submarine, details have come to light regarding the survivors of that strike. One individual was Columbian and was repatriated to Columbia after being severely wounded during the strike. This individual (who has not been identified) suffered severe wounds and might not survive. The other individual was from Ecuador and has been identified as Andrés Fernando Tufiño. He was repatriated to Ecuador, and was promptly released without any charges being filed as the government of Ecuador states that he committed no crime. This is quite a bold statement considering he was fished out of the ocean after his narco submarine filled with cocaine was sunk by an AC-130J gunship, but nevertheless this points to the seriousness of the situation. Venezuela, despite being the face of this campaign…is certainly not the only belligerent in this conflict, which is rapidly escalating into a region-wide war.

    -HomeFront-

    Wyoming: This morning the State Capitol building was evacuated after a suspicious package was discovered. Eventually EOD personnel rendered the device safe, and the building remained closed for the rest of the day. It is not clear at the moment if this device was an explosive device, but the investigation continues.

    Analyst Comment: This incident, while not uncommon, does provide a learning opportunity for all. A staffer initially discovered the device wedged in the state seal near the entrance to the building. Rather than leaving the suspicious package in place and immediately contacting authorities (as is the recommended procedure for the discovery of potential IEDs), the staffer picked it up and brought it inside the building. After tampering with the device for a bit, someone at some point realized that it might be an Improvised Explosive Device, and security was alerted, prompting the evacuation.

    New Hampshire: State Supreme Court Justice Anna Barbara Hantz Marconi has returned to the bench after being indicted on seven counts pertaining to her attempting to use her position on the Supreme Court to influence her husband’s criminal case.

    Analyst Comment: Her husband, Geno Marconi, was the head of New Hampshire’s Port Authority  when he was indicted on multiple counts of evidence tampering. This stemmed from an investigation into his misappropriation of state funds, as well as running an organized crime syndicate in which he used his position to grant preferential treatment

  • S2 Underground: The Wire – October 22, 2025

    //The Wire//2300Z October 22, 2025//
    //ROUTINE//
    //BLUF: VIOLENT CAREER CRIMINAL GRANTED BOND IN CHARLOTTE AFTER SHOOTING TODDLER. MEMBERS OF SINGH FAMILY CARGO THEFT RING ARRESTED IN CALIFORNIA. PENTAGON REPORTS STRIKE IN PACIFIC OCEAN AS NARCO WAR SPREADS. NEW HAMPSHIRE SUPREME COURT JUSTICE RETURNS TO BENCH AFTER ACCEPTING PLEA DEAL IN CRIMINAL CASE.//

     —–BEGIN TEARLINE—–

    -International Events-

    Ireland: Unrest in Dublin continued throughout the night, with thousands of protesters and rioters taking up position outside the Citywest Hotel. Today, local observers noted significant fortification efforts being undertaken at the sprawling complex that encompasses the resort hotel, indicating much more protest activity is expected.

    Analyst Comment: The situation was made worse by the fact that most media organizations have only focused on the riot itself, and not the kidnap and rape of a child that started the whole affair. Compounding issues further was the observation of another load of migrants being bussed in to the area under heavy police protection.

    South America: The War Department has announced another kinetic strike on a narco vessel, bringing the total count to 8x vessels sunk so far this campaign. This vessel was not sunk in the Caribbean, but rather in the Pacific Ocean in a vicinity that has not yet been disclosed. 2x individuals onboard the vessel were killed during the strike.

    Analyst Comment: Regarding the previous strike on the Narco Submarine, details have come to light regarding the survivors of that strike. One individual was Columbian and was repatriated to Columbia after being severely wounded during the strike. This individual (who has not been identified) suffered severe wounds and might not survive. The other individual was from Ecuador and has been identified as Andrés Fernando Tufiño. He was repatriated to Ecuador, and was promptly released without any charges being filed as the government of Ecuador states that he committed no crime. This is quite a bold statement considering he was fished out of the ocean after his narco submarine filled with cocaine was sunk by an AC-130J gunship, but nevertheless this points to the seriousness of the situation. Venezuela, despite being the face of this campaign…is certainly not the only belligerent in this conflict, which is rapidly escalating into a region-wide war.

    -HomeFront-

    Wyoming: This morning the State Capitol building was evacuated after a suspicious package was discovered. Eventually EOD personnel rendered the device safe, and the building remained closed for the rest of the day. It is not clear at the moment if this device was an explosive device, but the investigation continues.

    Analyst Comment: This incident, while not uncommon, does provide a learning opportunity for all. A staffer initially discovered the device wedged in the state seal near the entrance to the building. Rather than leaving the suspicious package in place and immediately contacting authorities (as is the recommended procedure for the discovery of potential IEDs), the staffer picked it up and brought it inside the building. After tampering with the device for a bit, someone at some point realized that it might be an Improvised Explosive Device, and security was alerted, prompting the evacuation.

    New Hampshire: State Supreme Court Justice Anna Barbara Hantz Marconi has returned to the bench after being indicted on seven counts pertaining to her attempting to use her position on the Supreme Court to influence her husband’s criminal case.

    Analyst Comment: Her husband, Geno Marconi, was the head of New Hampshire’s Port Authority  when he was indicted on multiple counts of evidence tampering. This stemmed from an investigation into his misappropriation of state funds, as well as running an organized crime syndicate in which he used his position to grant preferential treatment